Rockets Attempt to Make History Against Iowa State

IOWA STATE AT TOLEDO PREVIEW

After last week's triumphant upset win over then eighteenth ranked Arkansas, Toledo will attempt to make it back-to-back wins over "Power Five" programs as Iowa State comes in on Saturday. With a win, the Rockets would make program history by being the first team to defeat two "Power Five" conference teams in the same season. A year ago, Toledo traveled to Ames, Iowa to take on the Cyclones but would fall, 37-30, in a close one.

The crowd shown here, against Missouri last season, should
be of similar size Saturday against Iowa State.

This season should be different. Toledo is currently a nine-and-a-half point favorite against the Cyclones due to the national attention from the upset win over Arkansas along with the return of junior runningback, Kareem Hunt. A season ago, the Rockets had a graveyard for a secondary with the illness of Cheatham Norrils, Chris Dukes out for the year, and freshmen being pressed into action. Now, the Rockets are deep at all positions. UAB transfer, Rolan Milligan, has added tremendous depth to the defensive secondary while DeJuan Rogers is coming off of a game at Arkansas in which he tallied eleven tackles and an interception while Jaylen Coleman led the Rockets with thirteen total tackles. Last year, Iowa State threw all over the Rockets with quarterback Sam Richardson, who threw for 351 yards in the win a year ago. This year, the Toledo secondary should improve on that number.


TOLEDO KEYS TO THE GAME:

1) Slow Down the Iowa State Passing Game

Iowa State trusts quarterback Sam Richardson to throw the
ball frequently.
(Photo Courtesy: Brownsville Herald)

It's no secret, Iowa State destroyed Toledo a season ago through the air. This season, expect senior cornerback, Cheatham Norrils to play tremendously, as he has the past two (well, actually one) game(s). Expect Toledo defensive coordinator, John Heacock to bring pressure from all angles and attempt to rattle quarterback Sam Richardson. When Richardson has time to throw, he could destroy the Rocket secondary. If Toledo can get pressure on Richardson, it'll be far more difficult for him to deliver the ball to his wide outs.



2) No Post-Upset Hangovers
Toledo is beginning to receive national attention after last week's win over Arkansas. In fact, the Rockets received 29 votes for the Associated Press Top 25, which is enough to unofficially rank them No. 30 in the country. Now, the key for the Rockets is to not get too cocky, not celebrate too much, and focus on the task at hand. Sure, Iowa State wasn't good last year, but this is a Big 12 opponent, a team that plays a brutal schedule, so Toledo cannot come out flat to begin the game.


3) Find The Running Game Early
I know it should be easy with the stable of runningbacks that Toledo has to run the ball. However, against Arkansas, Toledo came out passing on eleven of their first thirteen plays from scrimmage, which obviously worked. This week, especially with the return of Kareem Hunt, expect Jason Candle's offense to put the ball on the ground, utilizing Damion Jones-Moore, who had a stellar performance against the Hogs last week as well as potentially Terry Swanson, who has "yet to play this season" except for in the cancelled game against Stony Brook. With Kareem Hunt, Jones-Moore, and Swanson, look for the rushing attack early and often to set up the play action with Phillip Ely.


IOWA STATE KEYS TO THE GAME:
1) Contain Kareem Hunt in his Return

Toledo runningback Kareem Hunt will need to be stopped if
Iowa State wants a chance on Saturday.

Kareem Hunt is unbelievable. In fact, the Toledo back rushed for nearly 150 yards against Missouri a season ago, so he can run against extremely capable defenses, not just cupcakes. With that said, Iowa State needs to focus on stopping the run against the Rockets. Toledo will use three (and even four) runningbacks throughout the ballgame, all who are extremely capable. Although Phillip Ely played tremendously in the "season opener" against Arkansas last week, the passing game depends frequently on the running attack of the Rockets. It will be a major assistance to the Cyclones if they can shut Hunt down.



2) Find A Running Game
Through their first two games, Iowa State has not been able to find their running attack. Sophomore runningback Tyler Brown rushed for just nineteen yards last week against Iowa, so running the football will need to become a priority. Toledo will have confidence in their defensive secondary if Iowa State is one-dimensional. However, if Iowa State is unable to establish the run game, expect Toledo's defense to play tremendously.



3) Score Early
Toledo should be playing in front of one of the biggest crowds that the Glass Bowl has seen in the past decade or two. The Rocket faculty and students enjoyed a pep rally on Thursday to get the excitement pumping for Saturday's game. Along with that, national television coverage will certainly get the Glass Bowl rocking. If Iowa State can score early and get the crowd out of the game, they have a chance to sustain that. The Cyclone offense will need to be clicking early against Toledo.

X-FACTORS -- TWO PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Toledo - WR Alonzo Russell

Iowa State defensive end Dale Pierson
is leading the country in sacks.
(Photo Courtesy: Iowa State Daily)

I know, I know. It'd be easy to give the X-Factor to Kareem Hunt because all eyes will be on his 2015 debut. However, I really think Alonzo Russell will play a major role in this exact game due to the size of the Iowa State secondary. The Cyclones have cornerbacks Sam Richardson (5'8", 180 pounds) and Nigel Tribune (5'11", 185 pounds) starting against the Rockets. Alonzo Russell stands at 6'4" and should be able to use his stature for deep balls, especially against man-to-man coverage. Watch for Alonzo Russell to play a major role, Toledo needs to target him often.

Iowa State - DE Dale Pierson 

America's sacks leader through two weeks is Dale Pierson of Iowa State. The senior out of Bakersfield, California has a tremendous spin move and tremendous strength and has five sacks in just two contests thus far in 2015. Listed at 6'2", 250 pounds, Pierson is going to be someone to watch out for. If he's able to get to Phillip Ely and the Rockets, it could be a long day. Remember, Toledo's offensive line is still unproven. Although they had a great week last week, Pierson will be a true test against the front five.

Toledo wide receiver, Alonzo Russell,
has a chance to have a big game Saturday.

HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN:
You can watch Iowa State at Toledo beginning at 8 pm on Saturday night on ESPNEWS. If you're on the road or want radio, tune into 88.3 FM WXUT -- The University of Toledo's student radio station beginning at 7:30 pm with the pregame show.



BOLD PREDICTIONS:
- Toledo will hold Iowa State quarterback, Sam Richardson to under 225 passing yards.
- Toledo wide receiver Alonzo Russell will catch two touchdowns.
- Iowa State defensive end Dale Piersen does not record a sack after five in his first two games.


SCORE PREDICTION:
Iowa State 24 -- Toledo 41

First Half Analysis: Toledo at Arkansas

RECAP:
Score: Toledo 9, Arkansas 7

Entering Toledo's first-ever contest with Arkansas, they opened as a 21 point favorite. With no respect granted to the smaller Mid-American Conference foe, Toledo made sure they earned some. Senior quarterback, Philip Ely came out firing for the Rockets, connecting with Corey Jones for a five yard touchdown pass to give Toledo an early 6-0 lead following a missed two-point conversion. Toledo's defense would impress early, blocking a poorly snapped punt, which was the first blocked punt for the Rockets since 2011 against Ohio State and making several key third down stops against the Razorbacks.

Late in the first half, Arkansas would attempt to convert on a fourth-and-one from the Toledo 34-yard line. Razorback head coach, Bret Bielema would send out his jumbo package in a goal-line like formation. The hand-off would go to runningback Alex Collins, who was stopped inches short of the first down and Toledo took over. From there, quarterback Philip Ely took over and connected with Corey Jones on a 24-yard over-the-shoulder grab to the Arkansas 31-yard line. The Rockets would stall out at the 21-yard line and true-freshman kicker Jameson Vest would connect on a 38-yard field goal, despite having his previous field goal attempt blocked, to give Toledo a 9-7 lead with 1:06 left to play in the opening half.

After Arkansas shot themselves in the foot with penalties in the final drive of the first half, Toledo would take a 9-7 lead into the locker rooms at the half. Sure, it's only one half, but the Rockets entered as a 24 point underdog, according to ESPN right before kickoff.

ANALYSIS: 

Philip Ely looked tremendous in the opening half. As stated, it was one half of football. However, last season, the Rockets would need time to get their offense going. Today, Ely came out looking sharp and playing smart. If something wasn't there, he'd check it down or throw the ball away, which was a key to entering the game in front of 50,000 screaming SEC fans.

The interesting part to the first half was Toledo choosing to throw the ball so often on their opening possession, even without Kareem Hunt. In fact, Toledo threw the ball eleven times in their first thirteen plays. In the opening half, Marc Remy and Damion Jones-Moore showed glimpses of elusiveness and play-making, racking up 39 yards combined on nine carries. Despite being outgained 278-to-216 in total yardage for the first half, the Rockets were right in the game in the opening half.

At wide receiver, Corey Jones dropped two key passes early in the game, but made up for it with a touchdown reception and a few beautiful receptions later in the first half, good for four catches and 36 yards. The Rockets will need to look for their key threat, Alonzo Russell, more often as the game continues. Arkansas' defensive secondary is undersized with one safety over six-feet tall. Russell caught one ball for 32 yards in the opening 30 minutes, which will need to improve as the game goes on. True freshman wide out, Diontae Johnson stepped up and played a major role in the opening half by contributing a beautiful grab for 27 yards and should be a major threat, especially speed-wise, in the second half.

The offensive line has surprisingly held up in the first thirty as well, aside from two key offside penalties on the Rockets' opening possession. Ely has been quick to get the ball out against a dangerous front seven as well, which will need to continue.

Defensively, the Rockets have played extremely well. Despite giving up 278 total yards in the opening half, Toledo got off of the field on third downs, holding Arkansas to 2-for-5 on conversions. A key fourth down stop late in the first half set up a Jameson Vest field goal which gave Toledo the lead going into the locker rooms as well.

The key to the second half: limit mistakes and continue to get off of the field. Long Arkansas possessions will tire Toledo's solid defensive efforts. If the Rockets win the time of possession in the second half, they'll be able to pull off the upset over No. 18 Arkansas. Book it. Current time of possession going into the half: Arkansas leads 17:26 to 12:34.

How Does Toledo Compete with Arkansas?

TOLEDO @ ARKANSAS - KEYS TO THE GAME

It's Arkansas weekend for the Toledo Rockets.
(Photo Courtesy: Idaho Statesman)

Following last week's cancellation against Stony Brook due to inclement weather, it's a "second" season opener for the Toledo Rockets. The Rockets and Arkansas Razorbacks square off in Little Rock on Saturday for the first ever meeting between the two programs. Obviously, it won't be easy for Toledo as they enter a hostile SEC atmosphere at War Memorial Stadium, but there are ways for Matt Campbell and the Rockets to keep the game close. Without Preseason Maxwell Award Watch List runningback Kareem Hunt, Toledo is behind the eight-ball before the game even kicks off on Saturday. So, between the environment, Kareem Hunt suspension, and only having a half of football under their belt, the Rockets have their work cut out for them this weekend in SEC country.

Arkansas opens as a 21 point favorite in the contest, but that doesn't mean Toledo can't make it a competitive game. Here are a few keys to at least making the game worth watching after halftime:

1) CREATE TURNOVERS

Chaz Whitaker creates turnovers in the Toledo secondary and
will need to provide a spark on Saturday.

Arkansas takes care of the football. Behind senior quarterback Brandon Allen, the Razorbacks will put the ball in the air. A season ago, Allen threw for 20 touchdowns compared to only five interceptions -- which was third-lowest in the FBS among qualifying quarterbacks. Allen is a true leader as well as a true game manager, with that being said, it'll be tough to force the senior into mistakes. To illustrate Allen's ability to take care of the football, he has not thrown an interception in his last 108 pass attempts, which is the second-longest streak of his career. Allen will also make his 27th consecutive start for Bret Bielema against Toledo, which is the longest current streak in the SEC.

For Matt Campbell and his defense, the focus will be on getting pressure and forcing turnovers. Someone to watch for is Toledo senior, Chaz Whitaker, who actually, "had two interceptions" in the "season opener." What season opener? Oh yeah, it technically didn't count. However, Whitaker's two interceptions in just one half of football before the cancellation, proved that he can be a leader in the Rockets secondary. The turnovers need to happen on Saturday.

As former Central Michigan head coach, Dan Enos, prepares for his second game as Arkansas' offensive coordinator, look for him to trust Allen early through the air. The hardest thing for opposing defenses against an Arkansas (or Dan Enos led) offense is the way they don't ask too much from their quarterbacks. The Hogs will run to set up the pass, which makes it difficult for the front-seven and ultimately opens up the passing game. Last week against UTEP, Allen threw for four touchdowns and led the way to a 48-13 victory in Fayetteville.

2) SCORE EARLY TO CONTROL THE ENVIRONMENT

Toledo will need to use Alonzo
Russell early and often against
Arkansas.

I get it, this is easier said than done, but if Toledo can get a big play early, it could swing momentum. Despite the game being in Little Rock rather than Fayetteville, the centralized location in Arkansas will draw Razorback fans from all over, which creates for a hostile environment. Something as simple as a defensive miscommunication from Arkansas, a big kick return, or even a quick field goal to begin the game could get momentum going and keep the crowd somewhat out of the game. 

In reality, if Arkansas scores first, especially a touchdown, this game is likely over. Arkansas a big (and I mean big) team in terms of size and will physically wear you down once momentum is obtained. The key to even the second half of the game will come in the first ten minutes of the game. What do I mean by that? I'll explain. Hypothetically (we hope), Arkansas scores fourteen points early. At that point, the crowd is rocking, Toledo is already mentally worn down, and the game is already decided (you aren't coming back from a fourteen point deficit in SEC country as a mid-major). In contrast, let's say Toledo somehow (no disrespect to the Toledo defense) holds Arkansas scoreless for their first few possessions and get some points on the board, that's when they're in the game. To summarize, the first ten minutes of the game will tell us a lot about how the afternoon is going to go. For the Rockets -- score early, play disciplined, and stay ahead of the environment and the rocking crowd in Central Arkansas.

3) COMPETE IN THE TRENCHES

Toledo senior, Trent Voss will play a major role in the pass
rush on Saturday.

As previously stated, Arkansas is a massive and physically imposing team that will pound opponents into the ground. In case that isn't intimidating enough, the Razorbacks' offensive line averages 328 pounds, which is the most in the Power Five Conferences as well as the National Football League. In fact, Arkansas features Dan Skipper, a 6'10", 331-pound right tackle who will provide nightmares for Toledo defensive ends Trent Voss, Keenan Gibbs, Tre James, and company. It'll be a tough task for the Rockets to out-physical the Hogs. However, the advantage is actually in Toledo's favor when it comes to speed and agility. The Rockets feature a quick front-seven, who could provide interesting challenges in the pass rush when it comes to applying pressure on quarterback, Brandon Allen.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Rockets, with five inexperienced offensive linemen, the Rockets will have their hands full with the opposing front seven. Like a broken record, Arkansas has dominating size on the defensive line, including 6'1", 340-pound senior defensive tackle, DeMarcus Hodge and 6'2", 290-pound junior Taiwan Johnson next to him at down-tackle. Toledo left tackle, Storm Norton has been pressed into duty as not only the blind-side protector of quarterback Philip Ely but also the captain and leader of the offensive line. Aside from Norton, Florida State transfer and fifth-year senior, Ruben Carter, will look to provide a presence on the Rockets' offensive line. Since Toledo's actual season opener was cancelled after one half last Thursday, the Rockets really didn't get a chance to see what their offensive line looked like, which is scary going into Arkansas.

All-in-all, Toledo will need to show maturity, especially when it comes to protecting quarterback Philip Ely on the offensive side of the trenches. However, on defense, the Rockets will need to pressure quarterback Brandon Allen before he tears the secondary apart. Toledo's speed and agility will need to be used if they'd like to win the battle in the trenches, but it will be one difficult task.

4) PHILIP ELY NEEDS TO THRIVE IN SEC COUNTRY

Toledo quarterback, Philip Ely should be used
to hostile environments.

Current Toledo quarterback, Philip Ely, has the background that you'd like your starter to have entering SEC country. Despite hardly having game experience, Ely is an Alabama transfer, who left the Crimson Tide for the Rockets after being a third-string backup in Tuscaloosa. Now, Ely should feel right at home. This is the reason he originally committed to Nick Saban and the Tide, to play in big-time games like the one this weekend. 

For Ely, there's zero time to adjust. In the game against Arkansas, one mistake could end momentum and ultimately end the Rockets' chances to keep the game close throughout. Obviously, you have 60 minutes in a football game, but against a SEC opponent, you need your quarterback on his 'A game' from the get-go. Typically (at least in the three games we've seen Ely start), he uses the first few possessions of each game to get settled in to a groove. This weekend, with as tough as the Hogs' run defense is, Ely will need to find his main targets, Alonzo Russell and Corey Jones, frequently. The key for Ely is to be a game manager and minimize mistakes. The one advantage Toledo could have is in the passing game due to the Arkansas secondary being slightly undersized. By using senior wide receiver, Alonzo Russell, the Rockets could have success on a few deep balls throughout the afternoon due to his 6'4", 205-pound frame.

5) RIDE THE HOT HAND AT RUNNINGBACK

Toledo offensive coordinator, Jason Candle loves to run the
football, but is without Kareem Hunt on Saturday.

It's no secret that Toledo will be without Kareem Hunt on Saturday against a top-twenty opponent. The loss is a big one, without a doubt. Even with Hunt, people were already writing the Rockets off in the matchup. Now, head coach Matt Campbell will need to lean heavily on juniors Damion Jones-Moore and Marc Remy as well as true-sophomore Terry Swanson, who has been battling a lower leg injury over the past week. In games where Hunt is healthy and active, he'll obviously take over the show, but Jones-Moore, Remy, and Swanson always get their carries on a game-to-game basis as well. This week, one (or all) will need to step up. Typically, Matt Campbell will give each tailback two or three series' before seeing who has the hot hand for the second half. In my eyes, it can't be all three runningbacks getting equal action, one of them will need to at least show positive signs to make plays.

Without an established runningback, it'll be extremely tough for the Rockets, even though they run the ball so well. In fact, Toledo ranked No. 14 in the country a season ago in rushing yards per game, but now they do so without their junior leader. The season opener against Stony Brook was suppose to solve questions as to who the main runningback would be this weekend in Little Rock. However, due to Mother Nature and the cancellation, thirty minutes of football simply wasn't enough to tell who will see the most action this weekend. Ultimately, Damion Jones-Moore showed glimpses of break-away speed last week at times, so look for him to get a majority of the early carries, especially if Swanson isn't fully healthy at kickoff.

EASY ENOUGH, RIGHT?

There. Plain and simple, if Toledo does those five things, they win. Well, nevermind. This is SEC football, there's nothing mid-major about this weekend. Even if the Rockets do three or four of these keys to the game well, there's still a major chance of a blood bath in Arkansas. The sad part? I have full confidence in the Rockets this season, they'll be great. It's just that the Razorbacks are truly that good.

INTERACT

Questions/Comments/Concerns? Follow/Interact with Zach on Twitter: @ToledoZach

I'll also be live-tweeting the game from Little Rock! Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET