Toledo 2015 Season Preview: Game By Game Predictions

Matt Campbell's Rockets are looking
for a breakout year in 2015.

My season preview of the 2015 Toledo Rockets continues, as I take a look into the Rockets' schedule going into the season and provide a game by game breakdown including my predictions. Obviously, take these with a grain of salt - I'm not perfect and my predictions will be off.

However, it's fun to look into and I'm interested to hear everyone's feedback on what the 2015 season has in store. With that all being said, it should be a tremendous season for Matt Campbell and the Rockets coming off of a 9-4 overall record in 2014. Even though it's WAY too early to think about, let's take a look anyway:

Week 1: Thursday, September 3rd - vs. Stony Brook

Toledo will be Stony
Brook's lone FBS
opponent in 2015.Week 

Let's be honest, Toledo will be favored heavily in this match-up with the Seawolves, who are a member of the Colonial Athletic Association in the FCS. However, don't overlook the fact that Toledo is Stony Brook's only FBS opponent on their 2015 schedule, which means they're going to give the Rockets all they have. Stony Brook was 5-7 overall last season under head coach Chuck Priore, who is entering his tenth season and is 57-47 as head man.

Stony Brook, located in New York, will make the trip to The Glass Bowl in week one and be heavily over matched. However, Rocket fans should look back to last year in week one of the 2014 season and remember trailing New Hampshire, 17-14 at halftime. Don't overlook the Seawolves, but depth will become a major part of this game and ultimately, Stony Brook will be overmatched, at least in the second half.

Prediction: Stony Brook 20 - Toledo 52
Bold Game Prediction: Toledo has three different runningbacks find the endzone.

Week 2: Saturday, September 12th - @ Arkansas

Toledo may have lucked out, at least slightly due to the location of where they'll face the Razorbacks in September. Rather than facing Arkansas at their home field in Fayetteville, the Rockets will play at Little Rock at War Memorial Stadium, where Arkansas plays one game per year.

Arkansas runningback Jonathan Williams will be load for the
Toledo defense to slow down. (Courtesy: Whole Hog Sports)

In this match-up, Toledo could struggle to run the ball, even with Kareem Hunt in the backfield. The Razorbacks allowed just 114 yards per game on the ground a season ago in a tough SEC. As a whole, Arkansas had the tenth best defense in the country allowing 19.2 points per game and will have another solid season as most starters return. For the Rockets, the key will be on the defensive side of the ball. Dan Enos, the former head coach of Central Michigan, is now the offensive coordinator at Arkansas and will likely implement his pro-style offense, which could benefit Toledo. The Rockets are excellent against the run, ranking fourteenth in the country in 2014. However, Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen plays very efficiently and recorded a 20-5 touchdown to interception ratio last year. A big key to the game will be turnover ratio for Toledo, if they can control the ball and run their offense, they have a chance. However, if you allow the tough Arkansas defense to control you, it's game over. Arkansas doesn't really have a true go-to receiver and only had two receivers over 500 yards receiving last year. On the ground, however, the Razorbacks are a load to handle with Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, both rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2014 and will return even better this fall.

Overall, I don't think it'll be a very high scoring game and it should be an attack of the backfields. The big difference to me is Toledo's offensive line versus the nasty defensive line of the Razorbacks. All in all, a close game, but Arkansas is victorious in Little Rock.

Prediction: Toledo 21 - Arkansas 34
Bold Game Prediction: Rockets held to less than 150 yards rushing (averaged 256 YPG in 2014)

Week 3: Saturday, September 19th - vs. Iowa State

For Toledo, it's a chance for revenge. For Iowa State, it's a chance to take care of business on the road. The Rockets fell to Iowa State in 2014, 37-30 in heartbreaking fashion but will get a chance to take one in front of the home crowd at The Glass Bowl this season. Iowa State is coming off of a 2-10 overall season, one win, of which came against the Rockets.

Kareem Hunt should lead the Rockets in the game against
Iowa State, who has a struggling run defense.

However, the Cyclones are building as senior quarterback Sam Richardson looks to take control in 2015. Richardson threw for 2,669 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a junior in 2014. Despite the solid stat line, he has zero targets to throw to. E.J. Bibbs was the Cyclones top receiver a year ago with 382 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. With that being said, Iowa State will have three decent targets this season in D'Vario Montgomery, Allen Lazard, and Quenton Bundrage, who returns from a knee injury in 2014.

The key for the Rockets is to run the football down the Cyclones' throats. Iowa State gave up 246 yards rushing per game last season, which was 123rd in the country. Once Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson get free, it'll open up the passing game, which Iowa State ranked 122nd in passing yards per game a year ago as well. Overall, the Cyclones could (and will) struggle to stop the Toledo offense, which is even better this season. Like I've stated, I expect a much better season for the Rocket secondary, which returns Cam Cole and Cheatham Norrils and as long as Iowa State quarterback Sam Richardson continues to play erratically (53% completion percentage last year), it could be a good game for the Rockets to score a quality win against a Big 12 opponent.

Prediction: Iowa State 31 - Toledo 45
Bold Game Prediction: Toledo runningback Kareem Hunt rushes for 200+ yards.

Week 4: Saturday, September 26th - vs. Arkansas State

Ah, yes, a refreshing rematch from the 2014 GoDaddy Bowl in which Toledo ran up, through, and around the Red Wolf defense, en route to a 63-44 victory. Arkansas State will return their high-powered offense from last season, led by quarterback Fredi Knighten (3,277 passing yards and 35 total touchdowns in 2014), who is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in all of college football. The Wolves also return Michael Gordon, who was an 1,100 yard rusher in 2014.

Arkansas State quarterback Fredi Knighten
was electric in 2014. (Photo: Religion News)

The difference in this game is the Arkansas State secondary and its new-look. The losses of Andrew Tryon, Sterling Young, and Frankie Jackson will leave a large void in the defensive backs with only safety Money Hunter returning as a starter, who recorded 54 solo tackles and two interceptions a year ago. No matter who the Toledo quarterback is (Ely or Woodside), they should be able to pick apart the Red Wolf defense, as long as the offensive line can protect from Chris Stone and company on the Arkansas State defensive line.

For Toledo: run, run, run, run, run. Could it be more obvious? The Red Wolves are also missing linebacker and defensive leader Qushaun Lee, who graduated, and already ranked 105th in the nation by giving up 205 rushing yards per game a year ago. It should be a big pay day for Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson as they should be able to run through the A-State defense, similar to the 2014 GoDaddy Bowl. Arkansas State will be able to put up some major points in this game as well behind Knighten and Gordon, which is why a shootout type of match-up like this is so intriguing. Previously, I had Toledo losing a close one to the Red Wolves, but after seeing the Arkansas State losses in their secondary and linebacker Qushaun Lee, give me the Rockets.

Prediction: Arkansas State 38 - Toledo 45
Bold Game Prediction: It's the first 300+ yard passing performance of 2015 for the Toledo QB.

Week 5: Saturday, October 3rd - @ Ball State

After a 34-23 win over Ball State last season, the Rockets will look to continue the streak in 2015 and I see nothing stopping them. Ball State loses runningback Jahwan Edwards, who graduated, which leaves Horactio Banks in charge of running the football (353 yards in 2014). Aside from that, the quarterback play for the Cardinals last season was brutal between Jack Milas and Ozzie Mann. Despite Mann taking care of the ball (ten touc going. In the Ball State secondary, shutdown corner Eric Patterson also graduated (37 solos, three touchdowns, two interceptions), it was inconsistent and lacked big plays.

The Toledo offensive line should have a great game against
Ball State, who is replacing a big void on the defensive line.

On defense, Ball State loses Michael Ayers and Nick Miles on their defensive line, two leaders from last year. I see no reason why the Toledo offensive line can't protect Logan Woodside or Philip Ely (whoever wins the job) and get the passing gamenterceptions in 2014), which also leaves a large void.

Overall, Toledo should be able to jump out to a 1-0 MAC record following the week five match-up with the Cardinals in Muncie. It's never easy to play on the road, but with the losses that Ball State will suffer in 2015 after several graduations, Toledo should be able to walk away with a victory.

Prediction: Toledo 38 - Ball State 21
Bold Game Prediction: The Toledo offensive line does not allow a sack.

Week 6: Saturday, October 10th - vs. Kent State (Homecoming)

Toledo's defense should be rolling on defense against a Kent
State offense that will struggle.

It'll be a packed atmosphere at The Glass Bowl for the homecoming match-up with Kent State. The Golden Flashes are coming off of a brutal 2-10 overall season, in which their lone Mid-American Conference victory came against Akron in their final game. After ranking 123rd in total offense and 83rd in total defense a year ago, respectively, Kent State will need to rebound if they want to be taken seriously in 2015. It will all start with runningback Nick Holley. As a sophomore in 2014, Holley rushed for 516 yards and three touchdowns, but is a threat in the passing game as well with 199 receiving yards. However, Holley will have help running the ball this season. Senior runningback Trayion Durham returns after missing all of 2014 due to injury, he rushed for 766 yards in 2013.

The Rockets shouldn't have a problem. The Flashes provided a bit of a scare last year, despite a 30-20 win on the scoreboard for Toledo. However, if Kareem Hunt remains healthy for this game and the secondary isn't banged up, Toledo shouldn't have problems at home in front of a sell-out crowd.

Prediction: Kent State 17 - Toledo 35
Bold Game Prediction: Kent State is held to under 100 yards rushing.

Week 7: Saturday, October 17th - vs. Eastern Michigan

Senior wide receiver Alonzo Russell could be the center of
attack against Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan is on the rise, seriously. It may not be a major rise, but they could be a six-game winner soon, which is big for the Eagles. However, this year isn't the year yet. Toledo will be able to run all over the Eagles once again, who ranked 126th in total offense with 15.2 points per game while ranking 125th in total defense, allowing 41 points per game. The 2-10 overall record last season is consistent for Eastern Michigan, who consistently rank in the bottom of college football's standings and statistics.

Kareem Hunt could honestly take the night off with Terry Swanson and Damion Jones-Moore in the backfield, Toledo will handle Eastern Michigan easily, just like they have the past decade.

Prediction: Eastern Michigan 17 - Toledo 42
Bold Game Prediction: Eastern Michigan allows 500+ yards of total offense to the Rockets.

Week 8: Saturday, October 24th - @ UMass

UMass quarterback, Blake Frohnapfel is due for another
breakout year in 2015. (Photo: Mass Live)

I'm being serious when I say that the UMass Minutemen could be one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this season. Obviously, the Minutemen still have drastic flaws on the defensive side of the ball, but offensively, UMass has outstanding star-power in quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and wide out Tajae Sharpe. Both Frohnapfel and Sharpe have a chance to be first team All-MAC this season and despite the graduation of tight end Jean Sifrin, UMass has a chance to win up to seven or eight games this season, especially in the MAC East.

Despite all of this UMass talk, they still ranked 105th in total defense a season ago and that number isn't likely to change all that much, especially against Toledo's high powered offense. Remember last year's match-up though? Toledo nearly gave in to the Minutemen, who fell to the Rockets, 42-35 in the final minute. This year, with the game at "home" for UMass, Toledo has to be on high guard against the upset.

Prediction: Toledo 38 - UMass 35
Bold Game Prediction: UMass' Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel throws for five touchdowns.

Week 9: Saturday, October 31st - Bye Week

Week 10: Tuesday, November 3rd - vs. Northern Illinois

It's the game on the schedule that everyone has circled. It's the game that decides the MAC West year after year. It's the game that Toledo struggles with the most, consistently falling to the Huskies and sealing their path to the MAC title game year after year. This season, it's different, there's a certain feeling among Rocket Nation that this is the year. This, this is the Rockets' time to get passed NIU.

The Toledo student section will play a big role in the Rockets'
match-up with Northern Illinois at The Glass Bowl.

Last season, the rankings weren't impressive. Northern Illinois ranked 50th in total offense, but ran the ball particularly well with 246 yards per game, 10th in the country. Quarterback Drew Hare had a great 2014 season, particularly on the ground with 900 rushing yards and eight touchdowns for the year. Aside from him, Cameron Stingily has graduated so the curtain has opened for Joel Bauagnon, who rushed for 655 yards and nearly six yards a carry as as sophomore last season.

Ultimately, I think Toledo finally gets over the hump. Northern Illinois isn't an offensive powerhouse anymore and Toledo's defense will be much improved as well. I'll take Toledo at home, but it will be an extremely close contest.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 24 - Toledo 31
Bold Game Prediction: Toledo holds NIU quarterback Drew Hare to under 25 rushing yards.

Week 11: Tuesday, November 10th - @ Central Michigan

Toledo has taken the past five contests between the Chippewas and Rockets, but this year could be a bit different. First year head coach John Bonamego will attempt to create offense this season despite the graduations of Thomas Rawls and wide receiver Titus Davis. Defensively, Central Michigan could struggle after loses of Justin Cherocci and Leterrius Walton as well, despite ranking 46th in the country defensively last year.

First-year Central Michigan
head coach, John Bonamego.

As illustrated, Central Michigan could struggle a bit due to graduations, but first-year head coach John Bonamego should take the program back to relevance soon. For this particular game, I think it's somewhat low scoring. It'll be a pro-tempo versus spread offense and a contest of tempo and game speed, Toledo looking to speed it up. Even though Toledo is on the road, I think they squeeze out another victory over the Chips, but I think that streak will end soon. The Rockets will need to control quarterback Cooper Rush defensively, but I think they're up the challenge.

Prediction: Toledo 24 - Central Michigan 21
Bold Game Prediction: Toledo wins on a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter. 

Week 12: Tuesday, November 17th - @ Bowling Green

The Battle of I-75, do I need to say more? This is a huge rivalry game in the Mid-American Conference, but one that Toledo has handled for the past five years. If Bowling Green quarterback, Matt Johnson remains healthy, the Falcons should have a real shot to take out the Rockets finally. However, Bowling Green struggled defensively, ranking 108th in the nation, giving up just over 33 points per game. With losses of their top seven defensively players, the defense could be even worse than last year, even though there isn't much more room for error.

Toledo runningback, Kareem Hunt.

Runningback Travis Greene recorded 949 yards and twelve touchdowns for the Falcons as a junior in 2014 and will be even better this season. Also, the key target is sophomore Roger Lewis, who had a breakout season as a true-freshman in 2014 with 1,093 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

In this game, I still think Toledo has the weapons. The Rockets haven't lost much on the offensive side of the ball while Bowling Green attempts to piece together their defense. Kareem Hunt should have another great game against the Falcons as well, leading to a victory late.

Prediction: Toledo 28 - Bowling Green 27
Bold Game Prediction: Kareem Hunt scores in the final minutes to give Toledo the victory.

Week 13: Friday, November 27th -vs. Western Michigan

How about the Broncos? The NCAA's largest turn-around last season, going from 1-11 overall in 2013 to a standout 8-4 overall in 2014. Broncos head coach, P.J. Fleck has turned the Broncos around and will likely be even better in 2015 after being outstanding on the recruiting trails.

Toledo's defense will have their hands full with Jarvion
Franklin all night long.

In 2015, Zach Terrell will lead Western Michigan offensively as a junior. Last season, he threw for 3,443 yards, 26 touchdowns and ten interceptions and should have another great season with even more weapons. At runningback, Jarvion Franklin is coming off of a season in which he was named MAC Offensive Player of the Year as a true-freshman with 1,551 yards and 24 touchdowns. On defense, Western will need to replace their top five defensive backs and could be extremely young and immature in the secondary.

Despite those losses, I expect Western Michigan to win the MAC West this season as they ultimately defeat Toledo in the Glass Bowl to give the Broncos the 2015 MAC Championship game bid for the west division.

Prediction: Western Michigan 38 - Toledo 28
Bold Game Prediction: Jarvion Franklin rushes for most yardage of any RB against Toledo in 2015.

OVERALL: 10-2 (7-1 in MAC)

As a whole, Toledo is unbelievably talented in 2015. They have all skill players coming back and although they lost all five offensive linemen from 2014, the Rockets should be incredible, as usual, offensively.

Defensively, Toledo's injured defensive backs will return in 2015, which will have a drastic effect on the team overall. Up front, Toledo will be dominant on the front seven led by senior Trent Voss.

I'm not saying Toledo will not lose more than two games, but for my predictions, I don't see them falling in any other games besides in Arkansas and Western Michigan. Obviously, there could be a slip up somewhere along the way for the Rockets, such as Central Michigan or Bowling Green. Iowa State will be a huge game as well, but if all goes well, Toledo could end up flirting with a Top-25 ranking towards seasons' end.




QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? Interact with Zach on Twitter: @ToledoZach