Toledo Attempts to Overcome Northern Illinois

THIS IS A RIVALRY

Ah, Midweek MACtion. Sure, the nation loves to turn on their televisions and see midweek football games, but for the Toledo Rockets, Tuesday night has a whole other meaning. For one week a season, Toledo's rivalry with Bowling Green takes a backseat. Why? Because they take on Northern Illinois.

Toledo head coach, Matt Campbell has been
unable to get passed NIU in his tenure at UT.

For the past five seasons, Toledo has had excitement around their football program. They've had star players, dynamic offenses, and sometimes even national attention. However, each and every year, the Rockets have had their MAC Championship hopes and national spotlight taken by the Huskies. In 2010, the Rockets fell 65-30 in a high scoring MAC showdown. A year later, the Rockets would fall 63-60 to the eventual Mid-American Conference champions. In 2012, it was a 31-24 decision in Northern's favor and a close game until a Kareem Hunt jump pass interception led to a 35-17 win for the Huskies in 2013. Last season, it was Toledo wide receiver, Dwight Macon stepping in to play quarterback due to injuries, where the Huskies would prevail, 27-24.

This season is potentially the most hyped up match-up between Northern Illinois and Toledo in the past decade. Formerly, it was Northern Illinois going into the game with a number next to their name, with the national attention and the Heisman candidate quarterback, Jordan Lynch. However, Toledo, now No. 20 in the country, is receiving the national exposure, especially featuring their Top-15 defense in the entire nation, allowing just 16.3 points per game thus far.

To put things in perspective, in the past six seasons, Toledo is 36-8 overall in the Mid-American Conference. Yet, five of those eight losses have come to none other than the Northern Illinois Huskies. For the Rockets, the season hangs in the balance on Tuesday night. A loss would certainly make the month of November a lot tougher due to the nature of the MAC West.

The Huskies will enter the Glass Bowl on Tuesday night with a 5-3 overall record after losses to Ohio State and Boston College, along with Central Michigan, giving them a 3-1 conference record. Toledo, obviously a perfect 7-0 and 4-0 in the MAC thus far this season, would still have a major chance to make it to Ford Field on December 5 for the conference championship game, but it would make the November 17 match-up at Bowling Green and the November 27 match-up at home against Western Michigan, must wins.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Toledo leads the all-time series with Northern Illinois, 29-13 overall, but as illustrated, the past few years have been rough. However, this season could be drastically different.

1) HOT START - Toledo must get off to a hot start. Despite outscoring opponents 73-0 so far in third quarters this season, it is a must to play well out of the gate. Last week, Toledo trailed UMass on the road, 28-10. Despite coming back to defeat the Minutemen, 51-35, the Rockets played terribly in the first half, which can't happen against a solid and discipline team in Northern Illinois. If Toledo is down at the half, even by a touchdown, it could be tough to comeback, even in the third quarter.

Northern Illinois runningback, Joel Bouagnon will
be a load for the Rocket defense to stop on Tuesday.
Photo Courtesy: Eleven Warriors

2) STOP THE RUN - Toledo's run defense has been incredible all season long. Teams like Arkansas, Kent State, and Ball State, all depended on the run against the Rockets and were all majorly disappointed in the result due to the Rockets' veteran front-seven. Northern Illinois features runningback Joel Bouagnon, who leads the MAC in rushing with 14 touchdowns along with 863 total yards already this season, averaging over 100 yards per contest.

It is crucial for Matt Campbell and the Rocket defense to at least slow down Bouagnon before the play action pass gets rolling for head coach Rod Carey and the Huskies.

Toledo quarterback, Phillip Ely has to get back on track against
Northern Illinois on Tuesday.

3) WIN THE TURNOVER MARGIN - Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. Every coach, no matter the level, wants to take care of the ball. Toledo senior quarterback, Phillip Ely has struggled as of late with interceptions, throwing three in the first half to a sub-par UMass defense. Against Northern Illinois, it will be interesting to watch the turnover margin due to the Huskies' defensive secondary and cornerback, Shawun Lurry, who leads the conference with seven interceptions thus far. Watch for Toledo to take of the ball, especially in tremendous weather. Despite the 8 pm start on November 3rd in Northwest Ohio, it should be nearly 60-degrees at kickoff, so weather won't be an excuse.

PREDICTION

Last week on Twitter, I predicted UMass to give Toledo a run for their money due to the passing nature of their offense. Therefore, my 52-35 Toledo prediction nearly came true as the Rockets pulled out the 51-35 victory.

At kickoff, the temperature should be nearly 60-degrees.
In Northwest Ohio. In November. Pack the Glass Bowl.

Tuesday night, something has to give. Northern Illinois loves to run the ball, Toledo loves to stop the run. Watch for the battle on the ground as well as, as illustrated, turnover margin in the ballgame. A crucial turnover could be the difference, or could it come down to a key special teams play? We've seen crazy endings with special teams lately in college football, so it wouldn't shock me. The past few seasons, Toledo has had some crucial injuries going into the game against Northern Illinois. This season, the Rockets, aside from linebacker Jaylen Coleman, are completely healthy. I'll take the Rockets to FINALLY break this five game losing streak, but it'll be a close one. Toledo is currently an eight point favorite from Las Vegas, but they don't truly respect the Huskies, who gave Ohio State a fight earlier in the season and quite honestly, should have won the game.

Northern Illinois 24 -- No. 20 Toledo 34

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