JASON CANDLE UNDERSTANDS THE LOFTY EXPECTATIONS AT TOLEDO
Yes, the year is 2015 and yes, Toledo still has a bowl game to play, which will be announced on Sunday. However, it's never too early to be looking ahead to next season, especially after the recent hire of former offensive coordinator, Jason Candle. The Candle hire has brought excitement back into the Toledo Football program, but with excitement, comes tremendous expectation.
"The expectations are high and the bar has been set," said new Toledo head coach, Jason Candle, "Nine wins is a tremendous season for anybody in the country, but for a Mid-American school to win nine games and two of those wins over Power-Five schools, that's elite company, so we want to continue that, we want to try to better that and we want to ultimately end up in Detroit playing for a championship."
So can they? The Rockets could have a few question marks in 2016. The first will be the inexperience of the head coach. Although new head coach, Jason Candle has spent seven years in Toledo, there are questions to be answered. Some have argued that Candle gets too fancy with the play-call and doesn't use his workhorses, Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson enough in the ground game. However, players simply love the Jason Candle hire. In the regard of the head coach, the fans don't matter, the alumni don't matter, the national media don't matter, it's about the players and the coaching staff buying in. A lot of times during the Matt Campbell era, we heard, "Trust in 'The Process'" which is the definition of what needs to happen in college football. In the world of college football, players love to play for younger coaches, which Candle, at age 36, is. Don't worry about the coaching inexperience, Candle will be a thunderous hire for the Rockets.
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| New Toledo head coach, Jason Candle understands expectations. |
Jon Heacock will certainly have his hands full in 2016 on the defensive side of the ball. Without the graduated leaders next season, guys like DeJuan Rogers, Treyvon Hester, Marquise Moore, and Jaylen Coleman will truly need to step up. The front seven should be solid once again next season behind Hester and Moore's elite strength and run stopping ability. Toledo was second in the MAC in the regular season in terms of run defense, look for that to continue once again in 2016. Jaylen Coleman was also lost mid-season in 2015 due to a broken leg, hopefully he can bounce back to once again be a major force in the MAC. As far as the secondary, Toledo will feature a similar secondary to the 2014 season, which was highlighted by then true-freshman, Trevon Mathis, who had some growing pains but ultimately played well in his first season of college football. Next season, Mathis, Jordan Martin, and Josh Teachey will need to step up in a big way as far as the true-corners are concerned for the Rockets. Guys like Connery Swift and Delando Johnson will also be important contributors in nickel and dime packages, especially since Jon Heacock loves to use his substitutions.
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| Guys like Keenan Gibbs have provided Toledo with a lot of depth in 2015. |
The pass defense could struggle in 2016, which is typical in the Mid-American Conference. The good news behind the pass defense is that two of the best quarterbacks in the MAC, Matt Johnson of Bowling Green and Blake Frohnapfel of UMass (who isn't in the MAC in 2016), are now graduating.
Other than that, Toledo will need to use odd blitz packages off of the edge, perhaps with guys like Swift and Johnson from their nickel and dime positions.
On the offensive side of the ball, Jason Candle won't miss a beat. Right now, quarterback Phillip Ely is petitioning for a sixth season with a medical redshirt, after missing nearly all of 2014 due to injury. If it is declined by the NCAA, which isn't likely to happen, quarterback Logan Woodside would assume the position over Michael Julian and redshirt-freshman, Mitch Guadagni, who has an extremely bright future with the Rockets down the road. Woodside, a soon-to-be senior out of Frankfort, Kentucky, had a solid season in 2014 ultimately ranking fourth in the MAC in passing efficiency and throwing for 2,272 yards and 19 touchdowns. Aside from being offensive coordinator, Jason Candle has also been quarterbacks coach for the past two seasons with the Rockets, so he understands the core nucleus of signal callers. The passing game, whether it be Ely or Woodside next season, should be decent, even without top wide receiver, Alonzo Russell, who will be graduated. Guys like Cody Thompson, and soon-to-be senior Corey Jones, will be the main targets in 2016 and wide outs Jon'Vea and Diontae Johnson will also be assets as well as tight end, Michael Roberts.
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| Trevon Mathis, pictured here with Matt Campbell, will be relied upon greatly in 2016. |
Roberts, a 6'4", 265-pound weapon for the Rockets should have a breakout senior season in 2016. This season, just eighteen catches for 188 yards and four touchdowns for Roberts, but they all seemed to come in the clutch and big-time moments. Next year, he'll be even a bigger redzone target with Alonzo Russell.
The running game will be interesting, but not necessarily in a bad way. Running back Kareem Hunt, a current junior and soon-to-be senior, could dart for the NFL draft due to his current mid-round projection. Currently, NFL Draft Scout has Hunt listed as the ninth best draft eligible back, out of 213. Aside from Hunt, current sophomore Terry Swanson will carry the load along with soon-to-be senior Damion Jones-Moore. Swanson has been a workhorse but has been overshadowed by Hunt in several instances. If Hunt leaves to play on Sunday's, look for the runningback not to miss a beat, though it is nice to have that one-two punch between physicality and speed in Hunt and Swanson. Younger backs like Art Thompkins could also see a lot of action in 2016, especially if they miss Hunt's presence.
Perhaps the biggest loss in the Matt Campbell departure was offensive line coach, Tom Manning, who is arguably the best in the entire country. Over the past two years, Manning's offensive lines had allowed just three sacks, even after replacing all five starters this season. In 2016, the Rockets will return all but Ruben Carter, their center and a Florida State transfer. Guys like Mike Ebert and obviously, big Storm Norton, will be extremely solid and depended on.
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| Behind Kareem Hunt, if he returns, Toledo will have another lethal ground game. |
Athletic Director Mike O'Brien also knows that a lot of pressure will be placed on his first-year head coach next season, "It's hard to say what kind of season we'll have next year, but I know they're going to play really hard behind Coach Candle and he will rally the troops. I can't give you a one-loss prediction but it's going to be a great year behind his (Coach Candle's) leadership."
For myself, it's hard not to expect a nine win season. The out-of-conference schedule is a bit easier than it has been in years past. In fact, Toledo should expect a 3-1 season in the non-conference. As far as for the MAC schedule, which isn't out yet, there will be a lot of coaching changes if Dino Babers bolts from Bowling Green and potentially P.J. Fleck at Western Michigan. Toledo may not be the preseason favorite to win the MAC, but they will compete in the MAC West. Next year's senior class will step up and be leaders, especially behind the new coaching staff and the understanding of culture and tradition at Toledo. I expect a 9-3 season next year with a strong offensive line and running game. As usual, no matter who the offensive coordinator is, Jason Candle will run a balanced offense. Expect potential losses to BYU on the road, which is an extremely tough place to play, and then potentially losses to either Arkansas State on the road, Western Michigan on the road, or even a team like Bowling Green or Central Michigan at home. We won't even mention those Huskies in DeKalb.
Thoughts? Comments? Interact on Twitter: @ToledoZach
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